Search this site
Public information siteInstitutional framework and operating programs continue to evolve

Assessment method · Published September 14, 2026

AI Risk Assessment: Method, Tiers, and Scoring

An AI risk assessment is a structured review of one AI use case. It names what could go wrong, rates how likely and how severe each harm is, chooses controls, and records whether the remaining risk is acceptable. This page sets out the method LA Global Institute uses in its own governance work: eight steps, four tiers, a likelihood by severity score, and the evidence to keep at each point.

One use case at a time

Assess the use case, not the organization.

A team can be ready to run a summarization assistant and unready to automate a benefits decision. Nearly nine in ten organizations now use AI in at least one function, and 44% are scaling it across the enterprise, according to McKinsey’s State of AI 2026. The number of use cases is the reason to assess each one on its own facts.

01

What it is

A structured review of one AI use case. It names what could go wrong, how likely and how severe each harm is, which controls reduce it, and whether the remaining risk is acceptable.

02

When to run it

Before a pilot reaches real people, before procurement closes, and again whenever the model, data, population, or law changes. One assessment per use case, not one per organization.

03

What it produces

A tier, a scored scenario register, a control plan with owners and dates, a written decision, and a monitoring plan with reassessment triggers. Together these form the evidence record.

04

What it does not prove

It does not certify a system, prove legal compliance, or replace a required legal, privacy, security, clinical, or employment review. It shows the organization looked, decided, and recorded why.

The evidence for assessing before deploying

Incidents, breaches, and penalties are now measured.

IBM’s 2025 breach study found that 63% of breached organizations had no AI governance policy, and that shadow AI added about $670,000 to the average breach cost. The numbers below are the ones a sponsor should have in hand before signing off.

04€35M or 7%

Maximum fine for prohibited AI practices

Whichever is higher, of worldwide annual turnover. Prohibitions already apply; high-risk obligations follow the Commission’s published timeline.

European Commission, Enforcement of the AI Act

Eight steps, each with an owner and evidence

How to conduct an AI risk assessment.

The sequence follows the four functions of the NIST AI Risk Management Framework: Govern, Map, Measure, and Manage. Steps one to four map the system. Steps five and seven measure it. Steps six and eight manage it. Governance runs through the owners and evidence named at every step.

01

Describe the system and the use case

One bounded description: what the AI does, for whom, which decision or output it touches, which vendor or model runs it, and where people review it.

Owner: Use-case sponsor

Evidence: Entry in the AI inventory with a system owner and a business owner.

02

Assign a provisional risk tier

Place the use case in one of four tiers. The tier sets how deep the rest of the assessment goes and who must review it.

Owner: Governance committee or delegated reviewer

Evidence: Tier decision with the indicators that drove it.

03

Map data, people, and decisions

List every input and its source, any personal or regulated data, the people affected, the decisions influenced, and who can reach the system.

Owner: System owner with privacy and security input

Evidence: Data map and affected-population note.

04

Identify harm scenarios

Write plain statements of what could go wrong: wrong output, unfair outcomes, exposed data, prompt injection, over-reliance, outage, legal or reputational harm.

Owner: Cross-functional reviewers

Evidence: Scenario register checked against a public risk taxonomy.

05

Score inherent risk

Rate each scenario for likelihood and severity on a 1 to 5 scale before any controls. Multiply to get an inherent score and a band.

Owner: Reviewer, confirmed by the system owner

Evidence: Scored register with the reasoning for each rating.

06

Choose controls and name owners

For every scenario above the accept line, pick controls that prevent, detect, or respond. Add a human review point wherever output is consequential.

Owner: Control owners named per scenario

Evidence: Control plan with an owner, a date, and a test for each control.

07

Score residual risk and decide

Rescore with controls in place. Decide: proceed, proceed with conditions, redesign, or stop. High-tier decisions get an independent second reviewer.

Owner: Decision authority named in the committee charter

Evidence: Signed decision with residual scores and conditions.

08

Set monitoring and reassessment triggers

Define the metrics to watch, the incident route, the events that reopen the assessment, and the next scheduled review date.

Owner: System owner and monitoring owner

Evidence: Monitoring plan, trigger list, and the next review date.

Four tiers set the depth of review

Place the use case before you score it.

01

Unacceptable

Uses the organization will not run regardless of controls. The practices the EU AI Act prohibits illustrate this tier, but an organization may set its own lines above the law.

Typical use casesCovert manipulation of behavior, social scoring of people, inferring protected traits from faces or voices, untargeted scraping of facial images.

Assessment depthStop. Record the decision and the reason. No scoring is needed to justify not proceeding.

Indicators present / tier assigned / reviewer / date
02

High

The output influences a consequential decision about a person, or a safety outcome. This tier gets the full method, independent review, documented human oversight, and monitoring.

Typical use casesHiring or promotion screens, credit or eligibility decisions, patient-facing clinical support, safety-critical operations, access to education, legal determinations.

Assessment depthFull eight-step assessment, second reviewer, pre-launch testing on the organization’s own data, quarterly reassessment.

Indicators present / tier assigned / reviewer / date
03

Limited

People interact with the AI or see AI-generated content, and harm is bounded but real. Transparency and human review of consequential outputs are the core controls.

Typical use casesCustomer-facing assistants, drafted content with editorial review, summaries that feed reports, recommendation features.

Assessment depthStandard assessment, a transparency notice, human review before consequential outputs reach people, semiannual reassessment.

Indicators present / tier assigned / reviewer / date
04

Minimal

Internal productivity use with no personal-data path and no consequential decision. Record it, confirm acceptable-use rules, and review it once a year.

Typical use casesCode completion in approved repositories, drafting internal notes, classification of internal tickets, spam filtering.

Assessment depthInventory entry, acceptable-use confirmation, annual review, reassessment if scope changes.

Indicators present / tier assigned / reviewer / date

Likelihood by severity, before and after controls

Score every scenario twice.

The inherent score describes the scenario with no controls. The residual score describes it with the chosen controls in place. The gap between the two is the value of the control plan, and the residual band drives the decision.

Likelihood

  1. 1
    RareNot expected within the review period. Would need unusual conditions.
  2. 2
    UnlikelyCould occur. No precedent in comparable systems or in testing.
  3. 3
    PossibleHas occurred in comparable systems or appeared during testing.
  4. 4
    LikelyExpected to occur at least once during the review period.
  5. 5
    Almost certainOccurs routinely or has already been observed in production.

Severity

  1. 1
    NegligibleMinor inconvenience, corrected within normal work.
  2. 2
    MinorLimited harm to a few people. Recoverable within days. No notification duty.
  3. 3
    ModerateMaterial harm to some people, a notifiable incident, or measurable financial loss.
  4. 4
    MajorSerious harm to people, rights, or safety. Significant legal or financial exposure.
  5. 5
    SevereIrreversible harm, or harm to life, liberty, livelihood, or a large population.
Severity ↓ / Likelihood →
1 Rare
2 Unlikely
3 Possible
4 Likely
5 Almost certain
5 Severe
5Moderate
10High
15Critical
20Critical
25Critical
4 Major
4Low
8Moderate
12High
16Critical
20Critical
3 Moderate
3Low
6Moderate
9Moderate
12High
15Critical
2 Minor
2Low
4Low
6Moderate
8Moderate
10High
1 Negligible
1Low
2Low
3Low
4Low
5Moderate

Low 1 to 4

Accept. Record the score and review on the scheduled date.

Moderate 5 to 9

Proceed with named controls, a control owner, and a date for each.

High 10 to 14

Proceed only after controls bring the residual score to Moderate or lower, confirmed by an independent reviewer.

Critical 15 to 25

Do not deploy. Redesign the use case or stop. Record the decision.

Worked example

An assistant drafts replies to customer complaints.

Scenario: the assistant states a refund policy that does not exist. The team scored it before and after controls, then decided.

Inherent score
Likelihood 4, because testing showed invented policy details. Severity 3, because refunds and trust are at stake for some customers. Score 12, High band.
Controls chosen
Retrieval limited to approved policy text. Every draft reviewed by an agent before sending. A refusal when no policy text applies. A weekly sample audit owned by the customer operations lead.
Residual score
Likelihood 2, severity 3. Score 6, Moderate band. Decision: proceed with conditions. Reassess in ninety days or when the refund policy changes.

Eight questions before the decision is signed

A score is not a decision until someone owns it.

A “no” does not end the use case. It names a gap that needs an owner, a documented choice, and a control proportionate to the consequence before the system reaches people.

  1. 01

    Is the use case, the affected population, and the decision path written in one place?

    YesNoNot applicable
  2. 02

    Has the tier been assigned and, for the high tier, confirmed by an independent reviewer?

    YesNoNot applicable
  3. 03

    Does every harm scenario carry an inherent score, a residual score, and the reasoning for both?

    YesNoNot applicable
  4. 04

    Is every residual score in the High or Critical band resolved, or is deployment stopped?

    YesNoNot applicable
  5. 05

    Does a named person own each control, with a date and a way to test it?

    YesNoNot applicable
  6. 06

    Can affected people learn that AI was involved and reach a human who can correct the outcome?

    YesNoNot applicable
  7. 07

    Has the system been tested on the organization’s own data and failure cases, not only vendor benchmarks?

    YesNoNot applicable
  8. 08

    Are monitoring metrics, an incident route, reassessment triggers, and the next review date recorded?

    YesNoNot applicable

Triggers reopen the assessment

The score expires when the system or its context changes.

TriggerReassessRequired record
Model, vendor, or version change

Rescore the scenarios that depend on model behavior. Re-run acceptance tests on the organization’s own cases.

Change record and updated scores

New data source or new population

Redo the data map and the affected-people review. Confirm the tier still holds.

Updated data map and tier confirmation

New task or new user group

Treat it as a new use case when the decision path changes. Otherwise amend the existing record.

New or amended assessment

Incident, near miss, or complaint

Rescore the scenario that occurred. Check whether the likelihood assumption was wrong.

Incident record linked to the register

Law, contract, or standard changes

Check the tier and the required controls against the new obligation, for example an EU AI Act application date or a sector rule.

Obligations review note

Scheduled review

Minimal tier yearly. Limited tier every six months. High tier quarterly, with monitoring reviewed between cycles.

Signed review with the next date

Use the public frameworks as source material

The method draws on public work. It does not replace it.

NIST AI Risk Management Framework

NIST released AI RMF 1.0 on January 26, 2023 and the Generative AI Profile, NIST AI 600-1, on July 26, 2024. The four functions, Govern, Map, Measure, and Manage, structure the eight steps above. The framework is voluntary, and NIST has announced revisions under the 2025 federal AI Action Plan, so check the current edition.

Review NIST AI RMF Review the NIST playbook

Risk taxonomies and vendor toolkits

The MIT AI Risk Repository is the broadest public checklist for step four. Microsoft publishes a Responsible AI Impact Assessment template, and Google publishes the Secure AI Framework for security scenarios. Governance platforms such as TrustArc, Drata, and BigID automate registers and evidence. Each is useful. None replaces the judgment, owners, and decision recorded here.

Explore the MIT AI Risk Repository Review the OECD AI Principles

References indicate source alignment only. They do not imply affiliation, endorsement, certification, or approval by NIST, MIT, OECD, the European Commission, any vendor, or any other organization.

AI risk assessment FAQ

Straight answers to the questions people search for.

How do you perform an AI risk assessment?

Describe one use case, assign a tier, map the data and people, write harm scenarios, score likelihood and severity before controls, choose controls with owners, rescore, and decide. Then set monitoring and the events that reopen the review. The eight steps above are that sequence, with the evidence to keep at each step.

What is the difference between an AI risk assessment and an AI impact assessment?

A risk assessment scores what could go wrong and decides controls. An impact assessment centers on the effects a system has on people and their rights, and some laws require one for specific high-risk uses. This method maps affected people in step three, so one record can support both. Whether a formal impact assessment is legally required depends on the applicable rule, not on this page.

What are the four types of AI risk?

The most cited four-part classification is the EU AI Act’s tiering: unacceptable, high, limited, and minimal. Other sources group risk by harm type, such as privacy, security, fairness, and safety, and the MIT AI Risk Repository uses seven domains and twenty-four subdomains. Pick one taxonomy, state which one, and use it consistently across the register.

What is the 30% rule in AI?

It is an informal heuristic, not a law or a standard. The idea is that AI can handle roughly 70% of a task while people keep about 30% for judgment, context, and accountability. It is a useful reminder that human oversight must be designed in. It is not a substitute for scoring the specific scenarios in a specific use case.

Can AI write a risk assessment?

An AI assistant can draft scenario lists, summarize documentation, and check a register for gaps against a public taxonomy. It cannot verify facts about your system, own a control, or be accountable for the decision. Treat drafted content as unverified input, have a named person confirm every score and control, and do not paste confidential system details into a tool your acceptable use policy has not approved.

Is there an AI risk assessment certification?

There is no single recognized certification for a completed AI risk assessment. ISO/IEC 42001 is a certifiable standard, but it certifies an organization’s AI management system, not the risk of one use case. The NIST AI Risk Management Framework is voluntary and carries no certification. LA Global Institute does not certify systems, assessments, or organizations.

How often should an AI risk assessment be repeated?

On a schedule set by tier, and immediately on a trigger. Minimal-tier uses are reviewed yearly, limited-tier uses every six months, and high-tier uses quarterly with monitoring in between. A model change, a new data source, a new population, an incident, or a change in law reopens the assessment regardless of the calendar.

Is this a free AI risk assessment template or PDF?

This page is a published method with a working record. It can be printed or saved from the browser without a signup. It is written for use-case-level assessment inside an organization’s own governance system, and it is not a fill-in form. Use it with the AI inventory, the governance checklist, and the committee charter so each assessment lands in the right place.

Build the connected governance system

Give every score a record, a committee, and a rule.